Telecommunications: January 2008 Archives
BCE shares closed down almost 4% yesterday at $34.95 as some investors begin to have doubts whether the Ontario Teacher's Pension $52B takeover of Bell Canada will be completed.
Contributing to the uncertainty, was Blackstone Group LP's suggestion that a $6.4B deal to buy credit-card payment processor Alliance Data Systems Corp. might fall through.In addition, amid the global credit crunch, due in large part to the US sub-prime mortgage fiasco - a wonderful example of greed and corruption - investors are concerned the $32B in debt funding necessary for the Teacher's to complete the deal, could evaporate.
In my view, the sooner the deal falls apart, the better for everyone involved. At a time, when Bell should be cannibalizing their own commoditized services with innovative offerings and expanding into their competitors' territories, they are nearly paralyzed as they focus on strict cost controls while employees wonder about their future.Even if the deal closes successfully, there will likely be a lengthy period of adjustment as the new owners take control. Bell Canada needs to invest and innovate and I doubt that the new owners will be in an investing mood given that they are going in with a $32B debt obligation.
On the positive side, it's a great opportunity for TELUS, Rogers and Allstream.
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The Toronto Star is reporting that Rogers intends to increase the price of it cheapest home phone plan by 4%. The increase is being applied to its controversial "system access fee" which will go from the current $4.50 to $5.95.
The increase will come as a surprise to many who believed that the trend toward deregulation initiated by the federal government last April, would lead to lower prices, not price increases.
As, I've stated here previously, I am in favour of a deregulated phone market. Despite this latest blip, I am convinced that the rapid advances in technology, changing demographics and deregulation will eventually benefit consumers with lower prices and innovative services.
There hasn't yet been enough pain felt by the incumbents to motivate significant innovation or to prompt them to begin the cannabilization of their own services and revenues. But, I remain convinced that it is inevitable. New competitors with new business models are on the horizon. In the meantime, Rogers and the rest, will continue to charge whatever they believe the market will bear.
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The increase will come as a surprise to many who believed that the trend toward deregulation initiated by the federal government last April, would lead to lower prices, not price increases.
As, I've stated here previously, I am in favour of a deregulated phone market. Despite this latest blip, I am convinced that the rapid advances in technology, changing demographics and deregulation will eventually benefit consumers with lower prices and innovative services.
There hasn't yet been enough pain felt by the incumbents to motivate significant innovation or to prompt them to begin the cannabilization of their own services and revenues. But, I remain convinced that it is inevitable. New competitors with new business models are on the horizon. In the meantime, Rogers and the rest, will continue to charge whatever they believe the market will bear.
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The Toronto Globe and Mail is reporting that Toronto Hydro Telecom has hired CIBC World Markets as adviser and is canvassing possible suitors.
The Globe reports that analysts said big telecom companies in Toronto, which include Rogers Communications Inc. and Bell Canada, could be among those who might be interested. Telecom consultant SeaBoard Group also hinted in a report last month that telecom company Atria Networks, which is owned in part by private equity firm Birch Hill Equity Partners, could come knocking.
The article doesn't mention TELUS as a potential buyer but I think it would be a good bet that they're looking. The purchase would allow them to bring many of their off-net clients onto their own infrastructure and eliminate many of the circuits that they currently lease from their competitors.
With the pending purchase completion of Bell Canada by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan I seriously doubt that Bell will be making any significant purchases anytime soon.
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The Globe reports that analysts said big telecom companies in Toronto, which include Rogers Communications Inc. and Bell Canada, could be among those who might be interested. Telecom consultant SeaBoard Group also hinted in a report last month that telecom company Atria Networks, which is owned in part by private equity firm Birch Hill Equity Partners, could come knocking.
The article doesn't mention TELUS as a potential buyer but I think it would be a good bet that they're looking. The purchase would allow them to bring many of their off-net clients onto their own infrastructure and eliminate many of the circuits that they currently lease from their competitors.
With the pending purchase completion of Bell Canada by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan I seriously doubt that Bell will be making any significant purchases anytime soon.
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The Toronto Star is reporting that TELUS is considering switching their mobility network from CDMA to GSM.
I don't know about the ROI of such a change, the cost of which is speculated to be in the area of $500 million, but the motivation makes sense. TELUS' ability to lead innovation (a critical requirement with the trend towards openness and increasing competition) is likely to be limited by its existing CDMA network.
I don't have any inside information but I think there is a high probability that they will make the technology switch.
Rick McCharles
Telecommunications Consultant
Toronto, Canada
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I don't know about the ROI of such a change, the cost of which is speculated to be in the area of $500 million, but the motivation makes sense. TELUS' ability to lead innovation (a critical requirement with the trend towards openness and increasing competition) is likely to be limited by its existing CDMA network.
I don't have any inside information but I think there is a high probability that they will make the technology switch.
Rick McCharles
Telecommunications Consultant
Toronto, Canada
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I came across a thoughtful article this morning by Art Rosenberg, The Unified-View. In a post named Rosenberg's "Third Law" To Impact UC, Art suggests that the most significant change in business communications is a shift towards Unified Communications over mobility, enabled by device and media independence. Art suggests that this change is being driven by innovative devices and the trend towards open systems.
UC and Mobility
I agree, and I have posted previously on how innovation and the move towards openness, exemplified by Apple's iPhone, Google's Android, Verizon's intention to open their network to non-Verizon devices, and new spectrum allocation, are key indicators of a trend towards a richer communications experience. Unified Communications technology is poised to exploit these changes and its effect will be significant to the mobility industry and to employee productivity.
Telecommunications Service Providers will have no alternative but to embrace the change and to develop innovative new business models and technology. It's not an easy transition for them to make. However, I'm convinced that defensive strategies designed to protect traditional high-margin revenue sources and legacy investments are doomed to failure.
Intelligent Presence Services and associated functional attributes such as, filtering, availability, accessibility, willingness, capabilities, directory services, federation and awareness, are all critical elements to maximizing the benefits of Unified Communications. Persistence and message acknowledgment are also necessary elements of a UC system to effectively address communications between business applications / processes and humans.
By leveraging capabilities enabled by, IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) for example, a carrier could offer a Federated Presence and Directory service that would enhance enterprise UC applications. As an example, a service provider's Presence service could be leveraged to compliment a city's Crisis Management Plan.
Upon declaration of the crisis event, the service is invoked. Based on presence status and availability, the system locates and sends real-time notifications to City officials. Notification is expedited since notifications are only sent to officials based on known availability and capability status. If an official is not available on any device during the initial notification, the service continually monitors the person’s status and sends the notification the moment that the availability of the individual has been detected. The service persists until all officials have been notified and all critical notifications have been acknowledged and recorded.
Communications Enabled Business Processes (CEBP)
Art also discusses the UC aspects of integrating business applications and processes with human communications. This is an area of UC that Avaya began promoting heavily in 2007. We are in the very early stages of CEBP, but many are predicting that it is the area from which business will gain the most benefit from Unified Communications. As Art mentions, "business process analysis and consulting are key to using such technologies".
Understanding a company's business processes and identifying areas in the business flows that can benefit from the integration of UC applications is not trivial. For the past year, I have dedicated a large proportion of my time and effort in acquiring a better understanding of the value chain elements and business process flows and how UC should be integrated. As I have stated previously, the CEBP element of Unified Communications presents a tremendous challenge to industry vendors, consultants and analysts who have to date, been focused on the infrastructure elements of UC. Those who are not able to adapt will be relegated to the commoditized and low-margin plumbing aspects of UC.
Rick McCharles
Unified Communications Consultant
RIC ServicesStumble It!
UC and Mobility
I agree, and I have posted previously on how innovation and the move towards openness, exemplified by Apple's iPhone, Google's Android, Verizon's intention to open their network to non-Verizon devices, and new spectrum allocation, are key indicators of a trend towards a richer communications experience. Unified Communications technology is poised to exploit these changes and its effect will be significant to the mobility industry and to employee productivity.
Telecommunications Service Providers will have no alternative but to embrace the change and to develop innovative new business models and technology. It's not an easy transition for them to make. However, I'm convinced that defensive strategies designed to protect traditional high-margin revenue sources and legacy investments are doomed to failure.
Intelligent Presence Services and associated functional attributes such as, filtering, availability, accessibility, willingness, capabilities, directory services, federation and awareness, are all critical elements to maximizing the benefits of Unified Communications. Persistence and message acknowledgment are also necessary elements of a UC system to effectively address communications between business applications / processes and humans.
By leveraging capabilities enabled by, IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) for example, a carrier could offer a Federated Presence and Directory service that would enhance enterprise UC applications. As an example, a service provider's Presence service could be leveraged to compliment a city's Crisis Management Plan.
Upon declaration of the crisis event, the service is invoked. Based on presence status and availability, the system locates and sends real-time notifications to City officials. Notification is expedited since notifications are only sent to officials based on known availability and capability status. If an official is not available on any device during the initial notification, the service continually monitors the person’s status and sends the notification the moment that the availability of the individual has been detected. The service persists until all officials have been notified and all critical notifications have been acknowledged and recorded.
Communications Enabled Business Processes (CEBP)
Art also discusses the UC aspects of integrating business applications and processes with human communications. This is an area of UC that Avaya began promoting heavily in 2007. We are in the very early stages of CEBP, but many are predicting that it is the area from which business will gain the most benefit from Unified Communications. As Art mentions, "business process analysis and consulting are key to using such technologies".
Understanding a company's business processes and identifying areas in the business flows that can benefit from the integration of UC applications is not trivial. For the past year, I have dedicated a large proportion of my time and effort in acquiring a better understanding of the value chain elements and business process flows and how UC should be integrated. As I have stated previously, the CEBP element of Unified Communications presents a tremendous challenge to industry vendors, consultants and analysts who have to date, been focused on the infrastructure elements of UC. Those who are not able to adapt will be relegated to the commoditized and low-margin plumbing aspects of UC.
Rick McCharles
Unified Communications Consultant
RIC Services
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